Stephen Moore, a senior Trump campaign adviser and one of the architects of the tax cut bill in late 2017, provided metalcasters with an optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy at the 122nd Metalcasting Congress in Fort Worth, Texas. The PowerPoint to his presentation is here.
"I think we're looking at the single best outlook for the U.S. economy in 20 years. It hasn't looked this good in a long time,” Moore said.
Moore, a CNN commentator, delivered a keynote address April 5. Moore said there have been several recessions in recent decades. The Reagan recovery had a cumulative GDP growth of 36%, to the average recovery grew at 29%, and the Obama recovery grew at 14.9%.
Moore said the Trump recovery is likely to resemble the Reagan recovery, citing factors such as the recent tax reform measures, reduced regulatory burdens and high domestic energy output.
“That doesn't mean we won't see ups and downs in the market ... but it's a great time to be in business in America, and I think that's going to continue."
Two reasons the U.S. economy is taking off is the falling cost of energy and the reduction of regulations. The oil shale boom in the U.S. helps keep energy costs down, Moore said, while the administration has kept a campaign promise to cut overburdensome regulations.
"Donald Trump promised during the campaign that for every new regulation he passed, he would repeal two. He didn't exactly keep that promise, because 14 months into his presidency, for every new regulation that's been passed, he's cancelled 22, and that's gigantic."
Moore said the major economic story of the 20th century was that socialism and communism consistently fail, so it’s disheartening to see surveys that show half of college students favor socialism over capitalism.
On the issue of tariffs, Moore, who described himself as a “free-trader,” nonetheless said the recent imposition of U.S. levies on Chinese goods – which includes aluminum and steel – could lead to a better trade agreement between the two giants of the world economy.
“China needs us more than we need them, and that gives us leverage over China. … I think the ideal outcome would be if China stands down and goes to the table with Trump. … The big issue is what country will be the world economic superpower of the 21st century,” he said.
Moore said lower tax rates on American businesses and cuts to excessive regulations will encourage continued growth in the U.S. economy, including the industrial sector.
“If you get this regulatory burden off the backs of American businesses, there’s nobody who can compete with us,” he said.